1. How big is the USA cashew market?
The USA cashew market is valued at USD 1.39 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.77 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.99%.
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The United States cashew market is valued at USD 1.39 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.77 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 4.99% over the forecast period. This growth is underpinned by shifting dietary patterns, the proliferation of plant-based alternatives, and the premiumization of snacking formats.
Despite a steady top-line trajectory, the market is undergoing a structural bifurcation. Commoditized shelled kernel grades face deflationary pressure from private-label penetration and retailer margin compression. Conversely, experiential formats—in-shell roasting, flavor-forward kernels, and functional ingredient applications—are capturing outsized value. Per-capita consumption rose to 0.50 kg in 2024 from 0.41 kg in 2023, signaling a durable increase in eating occasions rather than a one-off spike.
| Metric | 2025 (Base) | 2026 | 2031 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | USD 1.32 Billion | USD 1.39 Billion | USD 1.77 Billion |
| CAGR (2026–2031) | — | — | 4.99% |
| Per-Capita Consumption | 0.50 kg (2024) | — | ~1.4 lbs by 2031 |
Our primary research identifies six material drivers, ranked by estimated impact on the forecast CAGR:
| Driver | Impact on CAGR | Geographic Relevance | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surge in plant-based protein demand | +1.4% | Major metros (LA, SF, NY, Portland, Austin) | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Rising per-capita intake of cashew nuts | +0.9% | Coast-to-coast; concentrated in CA, OR, WA, NY, MA | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Expansion of foodservice and snacking formats | +0.8% | High-traffic airports and college towns | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Shift toward regenerative cashew agro-forestry | +0.5% | National sourcing; premium demand on West Coast/Northeast | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| AI-powered optical sorting boosting grade yields | +0.4% | Processing clusters in CA and TX | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Government specialty-crop block-grant incentives | +0.3% | CA, TX, FL, NC | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
The plant-based protein driver is the most potent short-term force. Cashew milk, cheese, and bar binders now account for roughly two-thirds of kernel imports, tightening spot availability for snack packs and elevating the strategic importance of supply chain diversification. The USDA allocated USD 72.9 million in fiscal 2025 under the Specialty Crop Block Grant Program, with up to USD 24.2 million designated for California tree nut initiatives, offsetting 15–25% of capital expenditure for roaster upgrades and traceability platforms.
Shelled kernels led with 82.0% of the US cashew market share in 2025, remaining vital as an ingredient in dairy analogs and nutrition bars. However, private-label commoditization compresses retail margins, and co-manufacturing contracts secure large volumes at discounts of 8–12% compared to branded snack packs. In-shell cashews are advancing at an 8.4% CAGR through 2031, with Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, and premium cocktail bars treating roasted in-shell nuts as interactive experiences, charging 15–20% more than shelled nuts.
| Form Segment | 2025 Share | Growth Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Shelled Kernels | 82.0% | Moderate; margin pressure from private label |
| In-Shell | 18.0% | 8.4% CAGR through 2031 |
Confectioneries accounted for the largest application share in 2024, driven by energy bars, chocolates, and candies. Snacks and bars represent the fastest-growing application as functional snacking occasions expand. Dairy alternatives—cashew milk, cheese, and creamers—constitute a structurally important volume pool, with academic studies showing cashew-based cheese delivers superior protein efficiency scores compared with coconut matrices.
Online stores held the largest distribution share in 2024, attributed to consumer convenience, promotional intensity, and personalized shopping experiences. Supermarkets remain critical for trial and impulse purchases, while foodservice and travel retail achieve per-pound revenues 15–20% above grocery shelf averages.
The United States is a net importer of cashews, with domestic production negligible relative to consumption. According to UN Comtrade data (via World Bank WITS), US exports of cashew nuts (HS 080130) were valued at USD 19.4 million in 2023, down from USD 24.1 million in 2018, reflecting a declining re-export role. Key export destinations include Canada, Vietnam, Germany, Mexico, and Ghana.
Global supply is concentrated. In 2023, Vietnam was the top exporter at USD 2.92 billion (482,348 metric tons), followed by Côte d'Ivoire at USD 1.25 billion (1,021,270 metric tons). India, Nigeria, and the Netherlands round out the top five. For US buyers, this concentration creates exposure: Côte d'Ivoire and Benin imposed export caps to fortify local cracking industries, removing 500,000–600,000 metric tons of raw nuts from global trade. Importers with single-country supply chains paid up to USD 7,420 per metric ton in October 2025, 20% above 2023 levels.
| Supplier Country | 2023 Export Value | Volume (kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | USD 2,917.9 Million | 482,348,000 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | USD 1,247.0 Million | 1,021,270,000 |
| India | USD 356.5 Million | 68,443,500 |
| Nigeria | USD 351.6 Million | 468,601,000 |
| Netherlands | USD 288.5 Million | 55,511,400 |
Integrated suppliers such as Olam Food Ingredients shield margins through farm ownership, Arizona roasting capacity, and multiyear freight contracts. Smaller processors absorb higher landed costs and labor inflation, constraining their share. Meteorological models forecast continued climatic variability through 2030, implying a chronic cost overhang unless processors broaden origination to include emerging suppliers such as Mozambique and the Philippines.
The US cashew market is fragmented, with vertically integrated global suppliers competing alongside regional roasters, importers, and private-label manufacturers. Key players include Olam Food Ingredients, DVK Group, Nutsco Inc., Alphonsa Cashew Industries, Bismi Cashew Company, Prime Nuts FZE, and Qlam International Limited.
Recent developments signal a pivot toward flavor innovation and premium formats:
Demand is concentrated in coastal and metropolitan regions, with California, Oregon, Washington, New York, and Massachusetts leading per-capita intake. The West region accounts for an estimated 28% of national market value, driven by health-conscious consumers and premium retail formats. The South represents 30%, supported by high-traffic airports in Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, as well as college campuses. The Northeast holds 22%, with New York as a hub for plant-based product development and foodservice innovation. The Midwest accounts for 20%, characterized by strong supermarket penetration and private-label volume.
The US cashew value chain spans origination, processing, distribution, and retail:
The US cashew market presents several white-space opportunities:
Consumers are expected to increase average intake to approximately 1.4 pounds by 2031, supporting consistent volume growth even if price pressures subside following the current inflation cycle. The FDA's exemption of cashews from routine aflatoxin sampling under Compliance Policy Guide 7307.001 reduces compliance costs, providing modest support to kernel unit economics. Overall, the market is poised for steady expansion, with value migrating from commodity kernels to experiential and functional formats.
| Aspects | Details |
|---|---|
| Study Period | 2020-2034 |
| Base Year | 2025 |
| Estimated Year | 2026 |
| Forecast Period | 2026-2034 |
| Historical Period | 2020-2025 |
| Growth Rate | CAGR of 4.99% from 2020-2034 |
| Segmentation |
|
Our rigorous research methodology combines multi-layered approaches with comprehensive quality assurance, ensuring precision, accuracy, and reliability in every market analysis.
| Stakeholder Role | Interview Share (%) |
|---|---|
| Procurement Director | 35% |
| Category Manager | 25% |
| R&D Director | 20% |
| Supply Chain VP | 20% |
| Company Type | Representation (%) |
|---|---|
| Vertically Integrated Cashew Processors | 30% |
| Specialty Roasters and Flavor Houses | 25% |
| Plant-Based Dairy Manufacturers | 20% |
| Foodservice Distributors | 15% |
| Retail Category Buyers | 10% |
The USA cashew market is valued at USD 1.39 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.77 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.99%.
Key drivers include rising per-capita intake (0.50 kg in 2024), surging plant-based protein demand, expansion of foodservice and snacking formats, and government specialty-crop block-grant incentives.
Shelled kernels led with 82.0% of the market share in 2025, while in-shell cashews are advancing at an 8.4% CAGR through 2031.
Vietnam is the top global exporter (USD 2.92 billion in 2023), followed by Côte d'Ivoire (USD 1.25 billion). Integrated suppliers like Olam Food Ingredients are key players in the US market.
Climatic constraints in key growing regions, chronic labor shortages in shelling lines, and container-space competition with higher-value nuts are significant restraints.
The market is expected to reach USD 1.77 billion by 2031, driven by premiumization, plant-based alternatives, and experiential snacking formats.