The nuclear electric power generation market closed 2025 at a base valuation of USD 1,185.11 billion, measured as aggregate revenue across fuel fabrication, reactor island equipment, EPC contracting, operations and maintenance, and wholesale electricity sales from nuclear assets. Revenue compounds at 6.85% through 2033 to a forecast valuation of USD 2,013.5 billion, creating USD 828.4 billion of incremental annual revenue in eight years.
Three forces explain the re-rating. Policy is the first: the COP28 pledge to triple installed nuclear capacity by 2050 from a 2020 baseline, signed by 22 governments, converted a stagnant fleet into an active construction pipeline of more than 60 reactors, roughly 25 of them in China. The second is demand-side. Hyperscale data centre operators signed nuclear-backed power purchase agreements covering multi-gigawatt loads, a contracting category that barely existed before 2023 and now anchors merchant pricing in the PJM and ERCOT interconnects. Third, supply chain reindustrialisation in enrichment, conversion, and fuel fabrication lifted equipment and fuel price realisations, which is why market growth outpaces underlying electricity demand growth.
Within the nuclear power market, the Pressurized Water Reactor Market remains the commercial centre of gravity at roughly 62% of installed capacity and the majority of the non-Chinese new-build order book. The Boiling Water Reactor Market holds about 18% of installed capacity, concentrated in the United States, Japan, Sweden, and Taiwan, and behaves as a services and uprate business rather than a new-build one. The Small Modular Reactor Market is small in absolute revenue, under USD 4 billion in 2025, but compounds above 22% annually as GE Hitachi, NuScale, and Kairos designs move from licensing into construction.
Downstream, the Electricity Generation Market is shifting toward firm, dispatchable low-carbon supply. U.S. nuclear capacity factors averaged 92.5% in 2024, roughly 2.5x utility-scale solar and 3.4x wind, which matters to buyers pricing capacity accreditation and to industrials hedging 24/7 clean power. That reliability premium is the single largest source of the market's pricing power.
Risks are executional rather than demand-side. First-of-a-kind EPC overruns, a USD 60-75/kg uranium spot band that feeds through to fuel cost, and permitting timelines of 7-12 years across OECD jurisdictions cap how quickly committed pipeline converts into revenue.
